The only reason to order a thicker cover is if your tub is in a hole where people can step on the cover, or if you need more strength for sitting, snow, pets, etc.... The higher density foam does not really help with colder climates, so there is no reason to add the weight of a higher density foam unless you need the strength.
R-value is the measure of the insulation value of the cover and 1.5lb 4-2 has as much insulation value as you would ever need so moving to the next thickness does not benefit you insulation wise contrary to what most manufacturers tell you.
Tapering Covers are thickest in the middle and slope outward like a roof
* Tapered covers are the most common and assist with rain run off
* Tapered covers are thickest across the fold and slope down to the sides with the handles
* We do not offer 1lb covers because they will not last. We offer two versions. The first is a 4-2 Taper 1.5lb standard cover which is adequate for most hot tubs or a 5-3 2lb version where you need more strength.